20 Climate Resilience Technologies for the 2020s
It is imperative that stakeholders facing climate risks adopt a technology lens to enhance resilience
Climate perils pose serious and significant risks to society. From an economic perspective, the period 2010-2019 was the costliest decade in the modern record for natural disasters globally–nearly $3 Trillion USD–according to Aon’s Weather, Climate & Catastrophe Insight -- 2019 Annual Report. 2019 brought flooding to the US Midwest, fire to Australia and Russia, tropical cyclones to the Bahamas, East Africa, and East Asia, and widespread record-breaking heat to Europe. The consequences of these disasters have been far ranging: increased socio political pressure associated with climate migration; reduced environmental quality and ecosystem services; and disrupted economic markets like tourism, insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and forestry.
Amid increasing risk from climate perils, technology and innovation have emerged as key enablers of climate resilience, the ability to absorb stresses and self-renew despite climate change. Indeed, as we have previously discussed in another blog post, many technologies can be considered “adaptive mitigation,” offering dual function and benefits: mitigating climate change by facilitating global decarbonization and adapting to climate change by supporting local adaptation. In some cases breakthrough technologies are being developed and scaled, while in other cases proven technologies are being combined in novel ways to expand markets with new capabilities. Here we highlight 20 climate resilience technologies for the 2020s. In each case, we discuss the technology’s potential impact and feature one or more solutions providers based upon it.
Dynamic downscaling/local climate models. Downscaled climate models are a powerful tool for identifying the climate perils a region will face and determining how adaptation strategies can offset the impacts of the imperils. Downscaled models take the outputs from Global Climate Models (GCM) and break them up into more outputs at finer of spatial and time scales. This data is useful for decision-making and adaptation on a local or regional scale. For example, with downscaled output we can estimate the potential change in the frequency of heavy precipitation events, number of days the temperature will break 100°F, and the potential change in humidity, all of which inform how a building is designed or how public health programs are implemented. Companies like Jupiter Intelligence, Four Twenty Seven, and RisQ are building platforms that leverage downscaled climate data from 1 hour to 50 years in the future.
Radiative cool roofs. Climate change will manifest itself in higher summer maximum temperatures as well as more days that require cooling. The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, an already costly problem, will be amplified due to climate change and result in $216 Billion/year of added cooling electricity expenditure globally by 2030. Passive cooling solutions will be essential. Conventional white “cool” roof materials such as those offered by Saint-Gobain and Akzo Nobel that reflect the solar radiation have been around for a number of years and are effective at cutting energy consumption. These reflective materials slow down the heat gain by a building by reflecting the incident radiation. However, given the magnitude of the problem radiative cooling materials that remove the heat already gained by the roof will also be needed, particularly as radiant cooling keeps working at night. This technology segment is a relatively white space with offerings by start-ups like Radi-Cool and significant IP from 3M.
Wind path creation for urban heat island reduction. Urban design will also have a significant impact on UHI reduction. Heat absorbed and re-radiated from buildings will need to be carried away from the urban areas. Wind speed has a strong damping effect on the intensity of UHI. However, in order to let the wind work, cities must create or expand radiation corridors and not encircle them. Building height and geometry distribution will have a big impact on wind corridors. Researchers like Baojie He at University of New South Wales have come up with different Urban Form Indicators for a variety of building densities and layouts (e.g. grid). Cities and urban planners should pay close attention to these advances and incorporate them in their toolkit.
Bifacial solar PV. Bifacial solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are an emerging adaptive mitigation solution poised to enter the mainstream. Unlike traditional one-sided solar panels, bifacial solar modules generate power from both sides of the panel, particularly effective when sited in locations with lots of reflected light (e.g. a white rooftop). Depending on how they are sited and mounted, they can produce 30 to 100% more power than traditional PV. Additionally, they provide shade below, which keeps the roof and building cooler. When combined with other technologies like radiative cool roofs, bifacial solar has the potential to both accelerate decarbonization of the energy system and increase resilience by addressing the urban heat island. Manufacturers like LG, Canadian Solar, and Sunpreme have made inroads with utility-scale, commercial, and industrial applications, while Prism Solar Technologies has found innovative applications of bifacial PV in verandah railings, awnings, and carports.
Green roofs and walls. Building components with integrated vegetation i.e. Green Roofs and Walls can address multiple climate perils such as reducing UHI-driven cooling energy needs for buildings, mitigating air pollution due to wildfires and/or vehicular sources, and reducing stormwater run-off and urban flooding risks. However, high installation and operational costs have kept the sector limited to niche projects rather than mainstream. Creative business models and public-private partnerships such as the Green City, Clean Waters Initiative by the City of Philadelphia will be needed.
Storm water sensors and alert systems. Flood monitoring tools like the StormSensor Scute Sensor and Terrapin Dashboard can be used to identify vulnerabilities in existing stormwater infrastructure. When paired with an understanding of the projected range of possible climates, flood monitoring tools can be used to determine the right mix of technologies required to minimize asset loss due to flooding. With increased freshwater and coastal flooding there is a growing market for stormwater sensors and alert systems. The information provided by these sensors can not only improve the design but also provide early warnings that ensure regions at risk of flooding can be evacuated in a timely manner.
Natural infrastructure for flood protection. Urban regions are particularly susceptible to floods since natural landscapes are often replaced with impervious surfaces like parking lots and streets. When the natural landscape is paved over the surface loses its ability to retain water in rain events causing stormwater infrastructure to be strained. Restoring the natural infrastructure can help manage both localized, coastal, and riverine floods. Examples of natural flood mitigation strategies include restoring wetlands, open space preservation, ravine restoration, daylighting streams, and planting forests and natural infrastructure along river coastlines. A common challenge with deploying natural infrastructure is a lack of land or space. Hydrologic and hydraulic (H&H) modeling by engineering firms like AECOM can be used to determine the locations where natural infrastructure will be the most effective and the amount of space required. In addition to models, land-use policies may be needed to prevent development in regions in which natural infrastructure is the most effective at mitigating flooding.
Materials for coastal flood protection. A number of major cities in the world such as Miami and Mumbai will have to choose between managed retreat vs. modification of construction materials and structures. Cities and areas of cities too economically valuable to move, will have to invest in technologies such as superhydrophobic nano-coatings developed by Nanotech Coatings and composite fibers for floating construction such as those developed by Tuf-Bar.
Built infrastructure for urban flooding. Minimizing the impact of flooding on the global economy will require a diverse mix of natural and built infrastructure. Traditional flood mitigation technology such as dikes and levees continue to be used to manage rising river and coastal waters in areas with high population but are not the only defenses against urban flooding. Blue roofs and green roofs offered by companies like Hydrotech and Columbia Green Technologies temporarily store rainwater on buildings using roof drain restrictors and vegetation, allowing for a slow release of stormwater which prevents the existing stormwater system from being overwhelmed by volume. Permeable pavement offered by companies like Pave Drain allows stormwater to drain directly through the surface into an underlying stone bed and the soil below thereby reducing the surface stormwater runoff. Underground stormwater retention involves the installation of large subsurface storage tanks or pipes where water is temporarily stored until the rainfall lessens or ends. Stormwater models can be used to identify the right mix of technologies to deploy to minimize the impacts of urban flooding on the existing infrastructure and economy.
Machine learning. Machine learning (ML)–popularly referred to as artificial intelligence (AI)–leverages mathematical models implemented as algorithms and cloud computing to enhance tasks that conventionally rely on extensive economic and human capital inputs. For example, Google researchers are using ML tools to predict climate perils like floods in India and wildfire in California. Accurate and precise predictions of coastal and riverine floods are important prerequisites for effective storm surge barrier and levee operation. Similarly, identifying likely hotspots for wildfire ignition and spread can help prepare limited firefighting resources for success by suggesting areas for fire mitigation or rapid response to incipient fires. Machine learning is not a silver bullet, but rather a catalyst that may improve the efficacy of climate adaptation actions.
Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Managing perils over large areas with constrained budgets and human resources will lead to a significantly higher use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The most promising technology providers will specialize in specific perils e.g. fire monitoring UAVs developed by Lockheed Martin and forest seeding UAVs developed by Drone Seed.
Hydropower optimization. Climate change will have a significant impact on precipitation patterns. Even as overall precipitation increases, dry areas like the southwestern US will get drier and wet areas like Southeast Asia will get wetter. But beyond these general trends, some regions such as the mid-western U.S. will receive higher precipitation in the Spring season. The precipitation changes will cause major changes in the river discharges close to major hydropower dams. Hydropower dams are currently not designed to accommodate the variations on either the high or low side. Therefore technologies such as low-head hydro turbines developed by Natel Energy, surface water driven turbines developed by Maclec in India, and in-pipe turbines that can generate power from excess pressure such as those developed by Rentricity will be much needed.
Aquaculture housing. Aquaculture or fish farming is the cultivation of marine or freshwater fish, shellfish, plants, and other organisms in man made structures located on land, in lakes, or in the ocean. Population limitations in natural fisheries, climate change, and changes in the world’s population will cause the aquaculture industry to grow over the next century. By 2021 the industry is expected to be valued at 209 billion USD, an increase of 34% compared to 2015. Additional infrastructure for land, lake, and marine based fish farms will be needed to meet this growing demand. Innovative housing strategies like Atlantic Saphire’s “bluehouses” simulate natural habitats while ensuring the environments are clean and free of fish diseases. Land-based aquaculture farms can also be located closer to the end consumer reducing the industries transportation emissions.
Aquaculture feed. The use of manufactured fish feed has increased over time due to the growth of the aquaculture industry and because manufactured feed has been shown to increase profitability. Manufactured fish feed typically requires about 40 essential nutrients including vitamins, minerals, amino acids, and fats. To ensure these essential nutrients are provided to the fish, a variety of crops and crop co-products as well as fish and livestock processing co-products are used in the fish feed. Fishmeal and fish oil have an almost perfect balance of the 40 or so essential nutrients which makes them a common feed for aquaculture. In 2016 around 20 million metric tons (MT) of raw material were used annually for the production of fishmeal and fish oil, with around 14 million MT of that coming from whole fish, 3.7 million MT from wild fish processing sector, and approximately 1.9 million MT coming from aquaculture. The use of aquaculture by-products as fish feed is becoming an important industry. As the aquaculture industry grows the need for fishmeal and fish oil will grow, meaning the collection of aquaculture by-products could grow as well. There are many companies that provide fish feed for aquaculture farms including Land O’Lakes, Hexafly, New Hope Group, TerraVia, and Wen’s Food Group.
Sensors and information & communication technology (ICT). Climate change will present significant challenges to food production systems everywhere. The move from wild fisheries to aquaculture will accelerate given ocean acidification and new patterns of species migration. New sensing and IoT technologies will be needed to optimize fisheries- whether wild or farmed. Technologies such as cameras developed by FlyWire that can differentiate between different fish species allow for automating auditing of critical fisheries. Companies like Observe Technologies are using artificial intelligence to optimize aquaculture operations such as increase or decrease feeding in response to feed conversion ratio. Similarly precision agriculture segment will continue to rise with offerings such as the early pest and disease detection enabled by drones from Aerobotics.
Regenerative agriculture. Regenerative agriculture encapsulates farming principles and practices that go beyond merely sustaining the land to actively rehabilitate it. Robert Rodale, an early proponent of the concept, described sustainable agriculture as an insufficiently challenging goal: “I am not against the word sustainable, rather I favor regenerative agriculture.” Regenerative agriculture seeks practices that increase biodiversity, enrich soil quality and function, improve watersheds, and enhance ecosystem services. The Rodale Institute introduced the Regenerative Organic Certification (ROC) in 2018. Expanding the number of acres on which regenerative organic agriculture is practiced effectively will help to increase resilience in agroecosystems and help to strengthen the land carbon sink.
Crop breeding. Another agricultural tool to increase climate resilience is crop breeding. Modern techniques such as marker assisted selection and CRISPR gene editing have led to crops with increased disease resistance, nutrient use efficiency, and storage time. Traits like these can support resilience by boosting yield, enhancing nutritional content, and robustifying plants to environmental stressors. Perennial plant breeding, also known as high-efficiency agriculture, is another active area of research and development work. Perennials crops like Kernza, Sunflower, Clover, and Flax have begun to show promise beyond field trials, making their way into specialty products like cereal, oil, and beer. Perennials require little or no tillage, sequester more carbon with their deeper and more extensive root systems, and tend to thrive with fewer inputs once established. Programs like Forever Green at the University of Minnesota and The Perennial Farming Initiative in California are working to research perennial cropping systems and commercialize their outputs.
Microbial soil enhancement. The interest in agricultural carbon sequestration will continue to increase. In addition, rising CO2 levels will lead to the need for nitrogen use efficiency to compensate for falling protein yields for crops like Wheat. Optimizing soil microbe composition will be a key lever towards these goals. The collaboration between General Mills and Soil Health Institute is a harbinger of things to come.
Pollinator health. Pollinator health is critical for both ecosystems and economies. Pollinators facilitate plant fertilization and reproduction, supporting plant productivity across the landscape. Honey bees, for example, are estimated to provide $15 Billion in services to agricultural crops each year. Despite their vital role, pollinator species such as honey bees and monarch butterflies are on the decline due to a combination of multiple factors including pesticides, viruses, and parasites. The Obama Administration created an interagency task force on pollinator health in 2017. Since then, US federal and state agencies have collaborated to identify strategies to foster pollinator health. This includes public-private partnerships that are working to restore degraded habitats like superfund sites, expand habitat in new green infrastructure investments like Bare Honey has done on solar farms while partnering with IPS Solar, and identify replacement chemicals for pesticides that pollinators have exhibited sensitivity. There remains a huge opportunity for solutions that improve pollinator health.
Structural soils. Structural soils are pervious materials used in pavement design. They can be compacted to provide structural support, yet also allow for root growth. First introduced in Europe during the 1960s as a solution to premature mortality of urban trees, structural soils have been researched and proven effective as a replacement for individual tree pits. Much of the commercialization effort in the US was spurred by the development of CU-Structural Soil by the Urban Horticultural Institute at Cornell University. When combined with other soil technologies like biochar, structural soils have the potential to sequester carbon, enhance stormwater retention, and improve the resilience of urban plants. This makes them an effective adaptive mitigation strategy for multiple perils including inland flooding and urban heat islands.
Two Degrees Adapt tracks leading climate resilience technology providers
Climate change impacts will be significant for cities, investors, and businesses through the 2020s and beyond. Opportunities abound to select and deploy technologies to avoid losses, and build resilience. Two Degrees Adapt published a 2019 report estimating that climate resilience technologies can lead to $1.6 Trillion USD per year of positive economic impact by 2030 across seven climate perils. Determining what specific technologies are appropriate to address each peril will necessitate techno-economic analysis through use of tools such as Peril Mapping and Technology Offset (PEMTO) to maximize the precious budgets of stakeholders. What ultimately gives us hope though, is the groundswell of technological innovation across the globe captured in our Climate Resilience Innovator Tracker (CRIT). This tracker contains 500, mostly small innovative companies and start-ups operating in five continents across seven climate perils. Cities, investors, and businesses concerned about climate change will do well to pay attention to these companies and the innovative products they are developing. With companies like Pachama applying IoT to make Forest Carbon Sequestration transparent and scalable, Waterstudio bringing floating construction methods to Maldives, Aquafondo enabling blue and green roof deployment in Peru, the hope for the planet lies in the hands of these entrepreneurs and their solutions.
To request a copy of our 2019 report “A Brave New World: Climate Adaptation as a Growth Vector for the 2020s”, learn more about PEMTO, or the CRIT database contact us at info@twodegreesadapt.com.