How Two Degrees Adapt used Computer Models to Support Climate-Proofing Efforts in Florida
After investigating how the US row crop industry can be climate-proofed, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) asked Two Degrees Adapt to extend our analysis to specialty crops in Florida. Climate change is having a real impact on US agriculture by impacting yields, farming practices, and supply security. While the impact of climate change on row crops like corn, wheat, and soybeans has been relatively well studied, agronomic data gathering and yield modeling funding has been limited for fruits and vegetables. As a result, the impact of climate change on fruits and vegetables remains less investigated even though it is an essential component of nutrition and the US agriculture economy.
Recognizing this gap, Two Degrees Adapt and EDF partnered to study the impacts climate change will have on the fruit industry by modeling mid-century changes in Florida strawberry yield using downscaled climate models and an innovative process-based crop model developed by researchers at the University of Florida. We highlight the impacts of climate change induced temperature changes like increased extreme heat and reduced chilling hours. These changes will shift the leading producer of strawberries in Florida, Hillsborough County, out of the goldilocks zone by 2050. Under this mid-century climate change scenario, strawberry farmers in Hillsborough County will experience decreasing yields (11%) and net income per acre (10%).
Adaptation strategies can offset the negative impacts of climate change. One example is shifting where strawberries are grown to north-central counties such as Marion County, where the mid-century climate will resemble today’s climate of Hillsborough County. Besides moving production north, a number of other adaptation options exist including new hybrids, shading, automation, sustainable cooling, and aquifer recharging.
Florida farmers have an opportunity to invest in piloting a broad swath of adaptation approaches to foreseeable climate changes and take a scenario planning approach to make strategic choices based on how strawberry production evolves in California, the dominant US producer.
The outcome of the project includes:
A detailed report written with the key stakeholders in mind (lawmakers, federal and state agencies, grower associations, agricultural lenders, and the food industry). The report provides an overview of the findings including key climate trends and adaptation opportunities. The report also provides an overview of the data and methodology.
Presentation at the Southwest Florida Climate Summit hosted by Coastal & Heartland National Estuary Partnership (CHNEP).
Media coverage highlighting the results of the study.
Two Degrees Adapt has supported clients through a range of mechanisms: by sharing our Innovation Tracker - a searchable database of over 500 adaptation technologies across the globe; through our Climate Data Lens offering - a database of climate datasets that represent historical and future climates; and through our fee for service Project Support. In this blog we provide an overview of how we helped one client, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), by combining our offerings to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the climate risks to core US agricultural crops, adaptation strategies, and the impact each strategy can have on the agriculture industry.
For more information on how we can help you solve your pressing questions please contact us at info@twodegreesadapt.com.